BMI View: Uncertainty continues to surround the outlook for Iraq’s oil sector, with sizable risks to both upside and downside. Political tensions, security and infrastructure challenges, and complaints over fiscal terms will see production grow, but below the country’s resource potential. The story is similar for gas, although progress on reducing flaring and the possibility of improved contract terms in planned gas licensing rounds could see more investment directed towards the sector. In the near term, the key development to watch remains the Ankara-Erbil-Baghdad relationship, with the Kurdistan Regional Government continuing to use trucks rather than the central government’s pipelines …
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