BMI View: Libya’s security risks, that we highlighted could threaten the oil and gas industry’s recovery in 2012, have played out. Production has fallen rapidly in Q313 on the back of resurgence in domestic tensions, which could be exacerbated by growing unrest in the wider North African region. Oil and gas production forecasts have been downwardly revised as a result of these developments, particularly for the short term. The deficit of greenfield investment, owing to political unrest, will spill over into the long term in the form of slower production growth, as Libya underperforms its raw hydrocarbon potential. The key …
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