BMI View: With another production shut-in only narrowly averted, the recently positive diplomatic overtures between Sudan and South Sudan are encouraging but do little to resolve the long-standing tensions that led Juba to secede in 2011. As a result, we retain a cautious and largely bearish view on the long-term outlook for the sector, even though we expect a strong rebound in production in 2014-2015 - notwithstanding elevated political risks. The longer-term outlook is bearish given we expect output from South Sudan’s key oil producing blocks to head lower from 2017. Despite ambitious plans and the start of small fields …
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